Brazilian University Researchers Build Cheap
Computers for the Masses
Ben Goertzel
May 21, 2001
As we march merrily into the
cyber-infused future, armed with our PDA’s, mobile phones and superpowerful
laptops, increasingly aware of the next wave of biotech, nanotech and AI
technology about to knock us off our feet and perhaps even transport us out of
our bodies, it’s worth remembering what a small percentage of the world’s
population the cyber-revolution is currently affecting in any direct way. Even in the US, there are huge urban and
rural ghetto areas where computers are uncommon and street corner drug dealing is
a far more common teenage occupation than computer hacking. And for the majority of people in third
world countries, the technological revolution is mostly something one sees on
TV or in American or European magazines.
But it doesn’t have to be
this way. The information revolution
has the potential to benefit every human on Earth, not just those fortunate
enough to be born into certain classes or certain countries. Slowly but surely, the tech revolution is
finding its way into every corner of the planet, even into the most unlikely
and economically disadvantaged places.
On the large scale, this diffusion process may be viewed as an
inevitable consequence of the advance of technology and the overall trend of
globalization. But in practice, in
terms of nitty-gritty human reality, the expansion of technology beyond the
world’s economic elite is by no means an automatic process. Rather, it is the result of huge amounts of
hard work and careful planning by dedicated people in the growing middle classes
of developing countries. Vastly more work
will be required to finish the process of disseminating technology across class barriers, including
more cooperation from those of us in developed nations. There are technical problems involved here,
but there are also major purely human problems, with tremendously complex
political and cultural dimensions.
The individuals who are
working to improve the human condition by spreading advanced technology
throughout the human population as a whole are just as deserving of
“cyber-hero” status as the people who are working to add impressive new
functionalities to our supercomputers or mobile networks.
An excellent example of the
kind of work that’s being done to spread the technological bounty throughout
the world’s population is the recent initiative within Brazil to create a
“cheap computer for the masses.” This
project, initiated by the Brazilian government and executed by research
scientists at the Federal University of Minas Gerais in Belo Horizonte, has required
no tremendous technological innovations, but it’s been a massive effort of
coordination between government, the computer industry, and academia. Bringing computing to the masses is not
something that any of these institutions were set up to do, and carrying out
the project within this context was not an easy feat. But this is the reality within which such initiatives exist, and those who are willing and able to
cope with the tedious combination of business, technical and political issues
that such projects entail deserve our immense respect and admiration.
The importance of this
aspect of cyber-development should not be underestimated, not just in an
ethical sense but in the context of the overall course of technical and human
development. In fact, I’ll put forth a
somewhat radical proposition in this regard.
I believe that the nature of the next phase of the tech revolution will
be very different, depending on whether it really is spread across the globe or
just restricted to a small economic elite.
Technology developed within a culture of inclusion and compassion is
going to be very different from technology developed within a culture of
elitism and ethical indifference, in thousands of obvious and subtle ways. If we want our advanced technology to be
friendly and compassionate to us, we’d better develop it within a culture of
friendliness and compassion. This is
an issue that cuts at the very contradictory heart of modern cyberphilosophy,
confronting our wildest dreams and futuristic visions with the grittiest
aspects of human reality. And as we’ll
see, it’s an issue on which different contemporary cyber-visionaries take very
different views.
With a 1999 GDP of $555
billion, Brazil is the tenth largest economy in the world, and is also highly
economically diverse, with huge variations in development level across
industries. Its economy history is
rocky, but the last decade has been a good one. In July 1994, led by President Fernando Enrique Cardoso, Brazil
embarked on a successful economic stabilization program, the Plano Real (named
for the new currency, the real). The
success of the plan surprised even many of its supporters. Inflation had reached an annual level of
nearly 5000% at the end of 1993, and under the Plano Real it dropped to a low
of 2.5% in 1998, climbing slightly in the years since but remaining in
single-digit range. In January 1999,
the country successfully shifted from an essentially, fixed exchange rate
regime to a floating regime. US direct
foreign investment has more than doubled since 1994, and overall trade has more
than doubled since 1990. All in all,
finally, after many years of chaos, the economy seems to be working.
In spite of this success
story, however, economic inequality in Brazil remains just about the worst – if
not the absolute worst in the world.
The standard way of measuring inequality is the Gini coefficient, which
ranges between 0 and 1: 0 if everyone in the country earns exactly the same amount;
1 if one person earns all the money and everyone else earns nothing. Throughout the 80’s and 90’s, Brazil’s Gini
coefficient has been around .60, compared to numbers in the .3-.4 range for
Southeast Asian countries, and the .4-.5 range in Africa. Latin America as a whole tends to have more
severe income inequity than most parts of the world, but even for Latin
America, Brazil is extreme: the average Gini coefficient for Argentina,
Bolivia, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Mexico, and Panama was 0.42 in the early
1990s.
Comparison of the Distribution of Income (Gini coefficient), Selected
Latin American Countries |
|
Country |
Gini Coefficient |
Argentina |
.49 |
Bolivia |
.51 |
Brazil |
.61 |
Chile |
.58 |
Colombia |
.56 |
Mexico |
.52 |
Venezuela |
.50 |
Source:
World Bank, Regional Study, Poverty and Policy in Latin America and the
Caribbean, Argentina Poverty Assessment and Uruguay Poverty Assessment (FYOO) |
What impact has the Plano
Real had on this situation? It has
drastically decreased the amount of dire poverty in Brazil, by increasing the
income level of all classes -- inarguably a very positive thing. Its impact on income distribution, however,
has been vastly less dramatic, although also significant.
There are serious human
issues here, which cannot easily be addressed by economic adjustments alone,
even extremely savvy ones as introduced by President Cardoso. The cultural divide between the Brazilian
middle class and underclass could hardly be more severe. The Brazilian middle class lives essentially
like the American or European middle class, and the Brazilian educational
system, for this small segment of the population, is outstanding. Brazil’s top universities, attended almost
entirely by middle and upper class youths, rank with the best institutions
anywhere. On the other hand, Brazil's annual expenditure
per primary school student is 12.8 times less than for its university students,
compared to a mere three-fold difference in the United States. The money that is spent on primary education
is far from equally distributed and ultimately contributes to social
inequalities in a major way.
The
drive to educate the Brazilian masses has been reasonably successful during the
past few decades. Illiteracy, which
tends to be disproportionately higher among
women, runs at 9.4 percent among Brazilian women between 30 and 39
years, but drops to 4 percent for the 15 to 19 age group. For men in the same
age groups, the rates are 11 percent and 7.9 percent, respectively. But these figures don’t tell the whole
story. There is a large gap between
basic functional literacy and having the educational background to fully
participate in the emerging global economy.
Graduating from a ghetto high school with no technical skills, no funds
to pay for commercial training school and a slim chance of getting one of the
few slots at the public universities, a typical Brazilian youth has vastly
fewer career options than someone in a similar position in a developed country. One
of the major challenges Brazil faces going forwards is to undertake reforms and
initiatives addressing the structural causes of poverty and income inequality,
and helping the country as a whole to move toward the future, as opposed to
just a small minority of privileged individuals. This is a task requiring tremendous creativity as well as money,
and one whose true dimensions will only become apparent as the work on it
unfolds.
The Brazilian software
industry is booming. The setting of the
stage for the current boom was slow and gradual. In the early 1990s, before the Plano Real, there were 100,000
people engaged in information technology activities in Brazil. Including 30,000
with advanced degrees in computer-oriented fields, 10,000 engaged in R&D
efforts, and 800 with Ph.Ds in computer science. Brazilian universities offered 210 undergraduate and 20 graduate
computer science programs, producing a steady supply of technically trained
individuals. Now, post-economic-stabilization,
the software industry is several times this size, including firms in every
aspect of computing and communications, with rapid growth in the Internet and
wireless sectors.
The Internet sector was
energized in December 1999 when Bradesco, one of the nation’s largest
commercial bank, started offering free Internet access in December 1999,
finding it could save money with online transactions and tempt advertisers with
a large captive audience. Other banks
rushed in, as did heavyweights such as UOL and Terra Networks. This has led to a burgeoning e-commerce
industry, driven more by traditional retailers than by dot-com start-ups,
although there are plenty of the latter as well. Overall, Brazilian e-commerce is expected to jump from $2.47
billion in 2000 to nearly $40 billion in 2003.
The government may lend another helping hand here, when in 2002 the
deregulation of the telecommunications market kicks in, causing a decrease in
Internet access prices and a commensurate increase in the number of Brazilians
online.
The
Brazilian wireless sector is growing at a speed exceeding even that of Europe,
let alone the relatively anemic North American wireless market. In many parts of Brazil, cell phones are a
necessity rather than a luxury. While
the situation is not as extreme nationwide as in Mexico and Venezuela, where
there are more cell phones than traditional wall phones, there are large parts
of Brazil where this may soon be the case.
According to recent Yankee Group estimates, the number of mobile users
in Brazil will increase 21 million in 2000 to 41.9 million by the end of 2003,
while the number of desktop internet users will rise from 6.1 million to 27.4
million users over the same time span.
But how does all this
fantastic development in the Brazilian software industry affect those who live
on the wrong side of the economic divide?
The growth of wireless
technology is particularly interesting in that, more so than desktop computing,
wireless bridges class divisions. Most
of the wonderful recent growth in the Brazilian software industry affects the
underclass only through very indirect trickling-down, since few members of the
lower classes are computer users, let alone sufficiently professionally or
technically trained to participate in the information economy in any
significantly way. But, cell phones are
affordable by a much larger segment of the population than desktop computers,
and as the mobile Internet becomes a major force, wireless may be come the
major means by which high technology spreads into the depths of the Amazon and
into the sprawling, dangerous ghettos that surround every Brazilian city.
The problem with the
wireless Internet, though, is that it has very little educational value for the
user, at least as currently deployed.
It also doesn’t do much by way of expanding the user’s knowledge base,
although it does enhance career possibilities.
It is valuable in that it spreads tech-savvy thinking throughout a
larger segment of the population. And it enables communication with populations
that otherwise would have been basically inaccessible. But still, until vastly more flexibly usable
wireless devices are available, the key to enabling impoverished individuals to
participate in the tech revolution is going to be the humble and familiar
desktop PC.
This gives rise to an
obvious question. In addition to “a
chicken in every pot” (as was advertised by Franklin Delano Roosevelt in the US
during the Great Depression of the 1930’s), why not “a computer in every
home”?
One might argue that there
are more critical things to do for the Brazilian masses. Bill Gates, after he established his $21
billion Gates Foundation, quickly abandoned his initial plans to focus on
disseminating technology throughout the Third World when he realized that some
of the computers he’d donated to African villages were useless due to the
minimal availability of electricity there, and the lack of relevant education
and training. Gates decided to focus on
improving the dissemination of medicine to impoverished regions.
But, Brazil is not the Sudan
– there is very little actual starvation in Brazil at present, though there is
surely some malnutrition. Medical care
is decent by third world standards, and at its best is excellent by world
standards, although the distribution of medicine into rural regions and urban
ghettos could use much improvement, to be sure. The main problem in Brazil is not keeping people alive, but
lifting them from the cultural and material conditions of poverty and enabling
them to become full participants in the emerging global information
economy. With an Internet-connected
computer at home, a young Brazilian has the world at his fingertips, able to
learn about every topic under the sun in a self-directed way. Skills like computer programming and word
processing can also be practiced, providing the computer owner a real
possibility of participating in the new economy in a serious way.
Still, though, Brazilian minimum wage is equivalent
to roughly $90 a month, whereas a Compaq computer, for example, goes for
$1,500. So the economic obstacle to “a
computer in every home” in a Brazilian context is pretty clear.
It was with this in mind
that Joao Pimenta da Veiga Filha, Brazilian minister of communications, chose
to organize the “Net PC” project. The
idea here was to create a computer that members of the Brazilian underclass
could genuinely afford. The Net PC will
cost around $400 reiais (around US$ 200), and will be available by June
2001. Furthermore, in order to ensure
affordability, and a 24-month payment
plan will be offered.
The task of creating this
machine was turned over to the computer science department at one of Brazil’s
leading universities, the Federal University of Minas Gerais (UFMG), in Belo
Horizonte. The project was led by a
number of expert computing researchers, including Sergio Vale Aguilar Campos,
trained at Carnegie-Mellon University in the USA, and Wagner Meira, trained at
the University of Rochester in the USA.
These professors are accustomed to spending their time doing research
and teaching on advanced topics like parallel computing (running programs on
specialized computers) and automatic program verification (programs that check
to be sure other programs are doing what they’re supposed to). But they and many of their colleagues and
students were willing to take time out from this to work on the
government-sponsored project of bringing much simpler aspects of computing to a
much wider population.
The Net PC itself will be a
fairly standard one – a Pentium 500 MHz, with keyboard, mouse, 56 Kbps modem,
14" display, 64 Mb RAM and no hard disk (16 Mb flash RAM instead). According to those involved in the project,
the technical aspects of designing the system were not particularly onerous –
no major inventions or innovations were required. The hardest part was bargaining with the manufacturers of the
various parts of the machine, who tended to be oriented toward making the most
expensive and powerful machines possible rather than creating low-cost
systems.
A demonstration version of the machine itself
Early on in the project it
was realized that the Microsoft Windows OS was not an option, due to its high
cost. Instead, the system was built
around the freeware Linux OS, the favorite of hackers everywhere. This is a very interesting aspect of the
project. In the US and Western Europe,
Linux is a minority OS, used by hackers, programmers and computer scientists
only. Standard tools like browsers and
word processors exist for Linux, but aren’t quite as polished or user-friendly
as on the Windows OS. On the other
hand, advanced tasks are much easier to carry out in Linux than in Windows, and
there are other major advantages, such as Linux’s increased stability (machines
running Linux can go for years without “crashing”, whereas the typical time
between crashes for Windows systems is more like days).
And Linux, unlike Windows,
is an open-source software system, meaning that anyone around the world can
edit the computer code that determines how the system runs, and make it run
differently. By its very nature, it invites
participation from users, whether those users are in the Brazilian ghetto or in
the heart of Silicon Valley. In the
same spirit as the choice of the open-source Linux architecture, the UFMG
computer scientists decided to make the
main-board architecture for the machine open as well, meaning that any
company will be able to make it, and that computer-savvy users will easily be
able to modify it or add onto it as they wish.
In fact, this is just one
example of the international move toward open-source software, which does not
yet pose a huge short-term threat to Microsoft’s hegemony in the OS market, but
may well do so in a few years time. For
instance, the government of Argentina is considering passing a new law
mandating that, after an adjustment period government offices can only use Open
Source software. And, less extremely,
the French government currently dictates that no computer files can be used in
government business unless they can be read and edited by Open Source software.
Each successive version of
Windows software uses more and more computational resources, thus providing
more functions (sometimes useful ones, sometimes useless one) and pushing
consumers to buy more and more powerful computers each year. As Wagner Meira says, in this regard the Net
PC project was strikingly contrarian.
“We did a lot of hacking for shrinking a lot of software into 16Mb. There was a lot of discussion around our
minimalist approach versus the maximalist approach usually adopted by Windows.
We are watching an ever growing and ever more flawed Windows over the years,
and our project adopted exactly the reverse direction.”
Instead of asking what can
be done to sell more software or more hardware to middle-class North Americans
(the question on the minds of most people in the US computer industry), they
asked, as Meira puts it: “What does a
computing
novice really need in a
computer? Internet (including multimedia) and text processing. Eventually software for creating a
spreadsheet or a presentation.
However,” – and here is the big difference from projects like the
American WebTV -- “the Net PC does allow expansions for those that want to have
an enhanced computing experience.”
WebTV and similar projects
allow very limited Internet use at low cost, but they don’t allow the user to
grow in sophistication. With the Net
PC, on the other hand, Meira says, “by employing an incremental approach, we
believe that we can reach a much larger portion of the population without
restricting the use of the equipment.
My mother, for instance, had a hard time to learn how to double click,
and she definitely does not know how to shut down the computer.” Yet a young Brazilian who wants to learn to
program software can do so on the Net PC; indeed its Linux kernel provides in a
some ways a better platform for this than a standard Windows-based computer.
Finally, Meira observes
cannily that the minimalist approach taken in the Net PC is the sort of thing
that could only emerge in a place like Brazil, not in a place like the USA,
where “More, more, more!” is the watchword.
“In Brazil,” he notes, “popular stuff is usually minimalist, such
as the popular car (up to 1000cc),
pre-paid cell phones, etc.” This is a
small example of the general principle that the developing world must lead its
own people into the information age.
The cultural and conceptual biases of First World countries aren’t
necessarily in synch with the needs of the rest of the world, even though First
World technology has universal applicability.
What impact will these
cheap, open-architecture computers have on the Brazilian underclass, on the
tremendous economic inequity that is the underbelly of this rapidly growing
digital economy? This remains to be
seen. One hopes that they will serve
to blur the distinction between the lower reaches of the middle class and the
upper echelons of the poor. That
families will save their money to buy cheap computers for their children, who
will then go online and learn about the depth of world far beyond their neighborhood, opening their eyes to the
possibilities that aren’t shown in TV sitcoms and reality shows. How many people, whose parents weren’t
university-educated, will use their new Net PC’s as tools to help them gain
computer skills, so that they can get in on the ground floor of one of the
software start-ups in Brazil’s booming software industry?
Of course, cheap computers
aren’t the whole solution to Brazil’s problems – they’re only one very small
piece of a huge and complicated picture.
Overall improvement of primary education in poor neighborhoods is a huge
task which is inarguably both more critical and more difficult. But it’s important not to be overwhelmed by
the magnitude of the human problems around us, and to realize that every little
bit counts. The popular bumpersticker
says “Think globally, act locally,” and this is one of those cliché’s that
actually deserves the repetition it receives.
The computer scientists at UFMG, as they take a break from their
advanced research on parallel algorithms and program verification to create inexpensive
computers for the masses, are playing an integral role in the technological
advancement of human race and the overall creation of global computational
intelligence. We need the next phase of
the tech revolution to be founded on compassion and inclusion, not elitism,
classism and egocentrism. This is a
responsibility that falls on us all.
What do the leaders of the
tech revolution in the developed world think of this kind of work? Precious few cyber-leaders are in practice
interested in devoting their time to such pursuits. One hopes that as more and more technology millionaires reach
the age where they become interested in philanthropy, the spread of the tech
revolution across the world will become a focus, along with other laudable
goals like global health and education.
But at the present time, opinions on the importance of reaching out to
the masses, and the optimal strategy for doing so, are all over the map.
A few months ago, excited
about the Brazilian Net PC and the prospect of further similar projects around
the world, hopefully coupled with serious educational initiatives, I began
talking about such things on the Extropians e-mail list, an Internet discussion
group devoted to futuristic technology and its social and economic
implications. Someone noted that the
views of the Extropian community tended not to be taken very seriously in the
mainstream press, and I suggested that, perhaps, if the Extropian community
became involved in doing something important to the mainstream world, their
opinions would be valued more. What if,
for instance, a group of Extropians devoted some of their time to education in
the Third World?
Eliezer Yudkowsky, a friend
and colleague whose opinion I respect, came down against this hard. According to him, his time and effort, and
that that of his cyber-guru colleagues, should be spent pushing
full-speed-ahead toward the “Singularity”, his word for the point at which the
acceleration of technical development becomes infinite, through computer
programs rewriting their own source code, robots rebuilding their own hardware
and other similar futuristic designs.
“How much money is spent on attempts to actually ship food directly to
the poor?” he asked. “Lots. How much
money is spent on direct efforts to implement the Singularity? … Not much.”
On the other hand, Samantha
Atkins, another Extropians list regular and a veteran Silicon Valley AI
engineer, replied to Eliezer with a different point of view: “Perhaps,” she
suggested, “there is a productive middle ground. Some of us could say more about precisely how the Singularity,
and the technologies along the way, can be applied to solving many of the
problems that beset real people right now.
We can produce and spread the memes of technology generally and AI,
nanotechnology and the Singularity in particular as answering the deepest
needs, hopes and dreams of human beings….
As part of this we also need more of a story about the steps up to
Singularity as involves the actual lives and living conditions of people. That we will muddle along somehow while a
few of the best and the brightest create a miracle is not very satisfying. What kind of world do we work toward in the
meantime? What do we do about poverty,
about technology obsoleting skills faster than new ones can be acquired, about
creating workable visions including ethics and so on? What is our attitude toward humanity?”
What is our attitude toward
humanity, indeed? Eliezer is a very
ethically serious person, and he truly believes that the best thing we in the
cyber-elite can do is for the world is to produce superior technology. The technology itself, he says, will
transform the world for everyone, and the most important thing to do is to get
the technology to this point, to the point where it can figure out how to solve
the world’s problems on its own.
There is a certain amount of
truth to this perspective. And, in my
view, there is also a certain irony to it, particularly given the fact that
Eliezer’s research so far has focused on how to make AI programs “Friendly,” in
the sense of being well-disposed toward humans. His solution to the problem of AI friendliness lies in the realm
of cognitive engineering – he believes one needs to give an AI an appropriate
goal system specifically designed to foster Friendliness.
In early 2001, I was running
the AI company Webmind Inc., and Eliezer visited our New York office to give a
lecture on Friendly AI. The lecture was
received excellently by some and terribly by others. Generally speaking the Webmind Inc. staff were absorbed with the
practical problems of trying to create real digital intelligence, whereas
Eliezer was more concerned with the various philosophical and futuristic issues
that will arise once a truly intelligent AI system is completed. But the issue of “wiring in Friendliness”
definitely struck everyone powerfully, one way or another. Among the milder responses, one of our
Brazilian software engineers – not one of the several who had worked on the Net
PC project before joining Webmind, but a good friend of those who had, and a
student of Wagner Meira and Sergio Campos – raised his hand and politely said:
“But perhaps the most important thing is not the in-built goal system, but
whether we teach it by example.” The
friendlier we are, in other words, the friendlier our AI systems are going to
be.
The issue is clear and
poignant. What the Brazilian engineer
was suggesting was that, if our superhuman AI grows up watching us act as
though most humans are dispensable and irrelevant, perhaps it will, in its
adulthood, believe that we too are dispensable and irrelevant. On the other hand, perhaps, as Eliezer says,
it will grow up and understand that building it was the best thing the
cyber-elite could do for humanity as a whole, and it will then proceed to
spread joy and plenty throughout the land.
Who knows?
These rarefied ethical
disputes are fascinating, but they easily carry one away into the domain of
angels dancing on the heads of pins. And this is why the kind of work done by Campos, Meira and their
colleagues is so intriguing. There’s no
arguing with the real physical-world power of millions of impoverished
Brazilians logging onto the Net and discovering discussion groups like Extropians,
where things like ethics and technology are discussed, and speculations on
superhuman AI appears alongside critiques of the latest Java release. Without the Net PC and other things like it,
these people might well never get to log on and argue with Eliezer for
themselves. (Not, at any rate, unless
the Singularity comes fast enough that superhuman AI systems revolutionize
their lives before they get old.)
In spite of the success of
Cardoso’s economic reforms, there is a lot of justified skepticism in Brazil
about the whole political system and everything the government does. University people are up in arms over
Cardoso’s plan to charge significant university tuition, breaking a tradition
of free university education for all sufficiently academically distinguished
students. As Thiago Turchetti Maia,
another Brazilian software engineer and student of Meira and Campos, says, “You
know the money saved from charging tuition is not going to go to send poor
people to university. You know it’s
just going to disappear.” But when
asked about the Net PC project, he waxes at least a bit more positive.. “Well,
there, you can see what the money’s going towards,” he says. ”At least that’s something real.” He shrugs.
“Maybe it will make some difference….”